Sunday, November 29, 2009

S&P 500 close = 1087.27

Long-term trend = L

Short-term trend = S

Intermediate (SWING) trend = S (11/27/09)
Intermediate (SWING) position = None (purchase price = $0)
Intermediate (SWING) stop loss level = NONE

(click on link on the right to see 'swing trade performance')
(ALL OF THE ABOVE ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE INTRADAY)
____________________________________________________________

I don't think that I have seen the futures that far in the red since prior to the March 2009 lows. The evening of Thanksgiving the futures market looked frightening after the world markets were down more than 3%. It looked like we could end up being down more than 300-400 points on the DOW. However, the markets proved to be fairly resilient during a shortened session. The DOW opened about 200 points down, but pared a significant portion of the losses by the end of the session. Where does that leave us for this week?

I think the price action last week was quite confusing especially since it occurred on low volume. This week all of the big boys will be back from holiday and ready to trade full steam. I think we will see some major whipsaw action on Monday. I will probably let the dust settle before I decide which way to trade. At this point the longer term daily trend still remains up, in fact, the daily close on Friday was above the 20 DMA which is around 1082. However, the short term trend is now down and will stay that way unless we break the 1100 area.

Tomorrow, I see pretty much a down day with potential for some upside in the early morning. Levels to watch for tomorrow:

1100 - recent high; break of this level MAY reverse the short-term trend back to up

1082-1083 - 20 DMA and also the low from Friday; this may serve as mild support

1071 - 50% fib support on the 60 min chart (for the recent leg up from 1029 to 1113)

0 comments:

Post a Comment