S&P 500 close = 1105.98
Long-term trend = L
Short-term trend = S
Intermediate (SWING) trend = S (12/4/09)
Intermediate (SWING) position = NONE (purchase price = $0)
Intermediate (SWING) stop loss level = NONE
(click on link on the right to see 'swing trade performance')
(ALL OF THE ABOVE ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE INTRADAY)
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You have not traded in the last week or so you are wiser than me. The markets have been so whippy as of late that the longs and shorts are constantly getting stopped out for a loss. This happened to me on Friday after going short on Thursday. I was up nicely as of close on Thursday and then the Friday gap up stopped me out for a decent loss. It has become a day trader's market. Swing and position trading is a little difficult right now.
The markets are still in an uptrend on the longer frame charts. Take a look at this daily chart, the trend line is up and the market is essentially in an uptrending channel. The last few weeks have been a trading range. Take a look at this 60 min chart, you see the range bound action between 1080 area and 1120. I had mentioned a week ago that we would likely hit the 1121 area. We came within 2 points of this on Friday. This represents the 50% retracement level from the all time highs to the low of march at 666. If you believe in fibonacci levels, you know that the golden levels at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. The markets will often revert after retracing to one of these levels. I would not be suprised to see a multiweek pullback to start. The other possibility is that we retrace to the 61.8% level that would put us near 1228. I cannot predict which will happen, but I think it would be wise to take some off of the table if you have been lucky enough to ride this run up from March.
Let's see if the markets finally break out of the trading range this week and find some direction.
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